China’s Coast Guard has recently entered Indonesia’s waters three times in a row, even on the very first day Prabowo Subianto became Indonesia’s new president. These moves show that China is testing Indonesia’s response and may want to see how the new leadership will handle the situation. This also highlights that Indonesia needs to think about changing its approach in the South China Sea.
The South China Sea, a large area of ocean that several countries claim, has been a long-standing issue. China says it owns a big part of this sea, including areas near Indonesia’s Natuna Islands. However, Indonesia has always believed that it has no territorial disputes with China in this area. But China’s actions show it might not respect this belief.
For years, Indonesia’s previous president, Joko Widodo, chose a “neutral” path, focusing more on building economic relations with China. This approach led China to become one of Indonesia’s biggest investors, bringing in many jobs and projects. However, China’s recent moves show that this focus on economic ties did not stop China from claiming parts of the South China Sea. Now, President Prabowo and his team may need to be more open about China’s actions in the Natuna Islands and inform Indonesians and the world about any aggressive behavior.
Indonesia’s close neighbor, the Philippines, has faced similar issues with China, but Indonesia has not supported the Philippines as strongly as it could have. Some experts believe this could have encouraged China to keep pushing its claims in the South China Sea. If Southeast Asian countries, like Indonesia, don’t work together, China may find it easy to deal with each country individually.
Indonesia is part of a group called ASEAN, which includes other Southeast Asian nations. ASEAN has been trying to agree on a “code of conduct” to manage behavior in the South China Sea. But these talks have dragged on without clear progress, partly because some ASEAN members have different views on dealing with China. Now, many believe Indonesia should push harder to either finalize these talks or consider stopping them if China continues to stall. Indonesia can also show support for the Philippines and other neighbors whenever they face challenges from China.
China seems to believe it can keep ASEAN divided by offering special deals or investments to individual countries. For example, Malaysia, under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, has taken a softer stance toward China, which may make China feel it has more control over the region. To stand firm, Indonesia should stay cautious of any promises China makes that seem more about “handling” issues rather than resolving them. Working with other countries, like the Philippines and Vietnam, could help Indonesia maintain its security in the region.
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In the past, Indonesia has helped neighbors during times of crisis, such as when it supported Thailand in the 1980s. Today, Indonesia could again show this leadership by encouraging ASEAN countries to prioritize collective security over individual economic gains. This unity could make it harder for China to influence each country one by one.
Indonesia has shown some support for the Philippines recently by sending military assistance for a disaster relief mission. But to ensure safety for all Southeast Asian countries, Indonesia should also consider securing its economic zone boundaries with nearby countries like Vietnam. Doing so would make it harder for China to exploit any divisions among Southeast Asian nations.
For its part, Australia should be paying attention. China’s recent incursions into Indonesia’s maritime area suggest that Australia’s efforts to “stabilize” relations with China may not influence China’s behavior. Australia must recognize that while it is focused on trade, China continues to expand its influence southward, which may not align with Australia’s long-term security.
China’s recent actions are a reminder that unity and cooperation among Southeast Asian countries are crucial. As Indonesia under President Prabowo works to adjust its stance, the region may see stronger collective efforts to ensure that the South China Sea remains a place of peace and fair use.