Shipping Industry Poised for 50 Mtoe Alternative Fuel Shift by 2030

The shipping sector is set to significantly increase its consumption of alternative marine fuels, reaching approximately 50 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) annually by 2030, according to a new report from DNV. This ambitious forecast, outlined in DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050, highlights liquefied natural gas (LNG) as the primary fuel source, bolstered by a rising number of dual-fuel vessels. Other fuels, including methanol and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), will also contribute, although ammonia and hydrogen are expected to remain limited in use during this decade.

Fuel Trends and Emission Reduction Strategies

As the maritime industry grapples with its environmental impact, DNV’s report emphasizes the critical role of alternative fuels in achieving sustainability goals. Currently, the industry consumes about 1 Mtoe of low-greenhouse gas (GHG) fuels annually. To align with the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) 2030 Base target, this figure must surge to as much as 25 Mtoe. LNG is projected to dominate this transition, thanks to a growing fleet of dual-fuel ships that can operate on both traditional and alternative fuels.

In addition to LNG, methanol is anticipated to play a significant role in the fuel mix, while LPG will have a smaller share. The report also notes that biofuels are gaining traction as a viable drop-in option across various shipping segments, offering immediate emissions reductions without necessitating new engine technology.

Moreover, onboard carbon capture (OCC) technology is emerging as a promising compliance tool. DNV’s analysis indicates that retrofitting OCC systems to large container ships, tankers, and bulk carriers is technically feasible. This adaptation would require space similar to that of a standard LNG fuel tank. If paired with the development of CO2 offloading infrastructure at 20 of the world’s largest ports, emissions from these vessels could be reduced by 19%, translating to a 9% decrease in total fleet emissions.

As the shipping industry navigates these changes, the shift towards alternative fuels and innovative technologies will be crucial in meeting future environmental standards and reducing its carbon footprint.