Scientists Urge Caution on Biofuels at COP30
As world leaders convene for COP30 in Belém, Brazil, an open letter signed by 100 scientists has raised alarms about the unchecked expansion of global biofuels demand. The letter, released by Transport & Environment (T&E), calls on governments and international organizations, including the International Maritime Organization (IMO), to prioritize genuinely sustainable fuels over crop-based biofuels. This plea comes as Brazil prepares to announce a global commitment to significantly increase the use of “sustainable fuels,” including a plan to double biofuel consumption.
Concerns Over Environmental and Social Impacts
The scientists warn that without proper regulations, the shipping industry risks turning to harmful biofuels, which could exacerbate climate change and social inequities. Currently, the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework (NZF) and the 2023 Revised GHG Strategy, which aim for full decarbonization by 2050, lack essential safeguards for biofuels. This regulatory gap could lead to a rapid increase in crop-based biofuels, undermining climate progress and worsening issues like deforestation and global food insecurity.
Biofuels have emerged as a contentious topic within the IMO as nations debate the fuels and technologies that will shape the future of green shipping. While biofuels are seen as a cost-effective solution for meeting decarbonization targets, experts caution that without sustainability criteria, this approach may replicate the environmental and food security crises already observed in the road and aviation sectors. The scientists emphasize that expanding crop-based biofuels into shipping could displace communities and contribute to deforestation.
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Currently, the cultivation of crops for biofuels occupies approximately 32 million hectares of land—an area comparable to Italy—yet only meets 4% of transport fuel demand. Projections suggest that by 2030, this figure could rise to 52 million hectares, roughly the size of France. Despite being labeled as “green,” crop-based biofuels emit, on average, 16% more CO2 than fossil fuels when considering land use changes. Furthermore, crops like soy and palm oil, which are often used for biofuels, could potentially feed up to 1.3 billion people. Alarmingly, about 20% of the world’s vegetable oil supply is currently burned for fuel instead of being utilized for food production.
Stalled Discussions and Calls for Action
At recent IMO meetings, member states displayed a lack of consensus regarding the role of biofuels in the maritime transition. Countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, and several African nations advocated for a “technology-neutral” approach that would allow food and feed-based biofuels to contribute to emissions targets. In contrast, the EU and Pacific Island nations warned that this could lead to repeating past mistakes seen in other transport sectors, advocating instead for a shift towards renewable e-fuels.
Discussions have reached an impasse, with the US, Saudi Arabia, and other oil-producing nations opposing further work on sustainability safeguards until after the NZF is adopted. This stance contradicts previous claims that the absence of such safeguards was a reason for delaying progress. In response, researchers, civil society groups, and international advocates have urged the IMO to incorporate indirect land-use change (ILUC) into its upcoming Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) guidelines. This initiative has garnered support from Mexico, the UK, and several Pacific Island nations, all of whom have expressed concerns about food security and environmental sustainability. The finalization of these guidelines is expected in April 2026.
