Maersk Resumes Red Sea Operations, Signaling Potential Shift in Global Shipping
Danish shipping giant Maersk has announced its strategic return to the Red Sea, a move that could significantly impact global shipping routes and freight rates by 2026. The world’s second-largest container carrier revealed plans to reroute its MECL service, which connects the Middle East and India with the U.S. East Coast. This decision follows two successful trial sailings and marks a gradual re-establishment of East-West navigation through the Red Sea.
The first vessel to embark on this new route will be the Cornelia Maersk, an 8,650 TEU Danish-flagged ship, departing from Oman’s port of Salalah on January 26. The Maersk Detroit will follow, becoming the first eastbound vessel to transit through the Suez Canal on February 3. Analysts are closely monitoring this development, as it may prompt other ocean carriers to reconsider their routes.
Shipping analysts at SEB, a Scandinavian bank, have expressed caution regarding the implications of this shift. They anticipate a potential short-term spike in freight rates due to congestion but predict that rates will ultimately decline as supply increases. Peter Sand, head of research at container rate platform Xeneta, described Maersk’s cautious approach as a “turning point” for the industry. However, he emphasized that a large-scale return to the Red Sea is not imminent, with full reinstatement of schedules via the Suez Canal potentially taking three to five months.
Impact on Global Shipping Capacity and Freight Rates
The return to the Suez Canal route could free up 6-8% of global container shipping capacity, according to Xeneta data. This increase in capacity may lead to significant downward pressure on freight rates, affecting both carriers and shippers. Philip Damas, managing director of shipping consultancy Drewry, highlighted that the reopening of the Suez Canal route will be a key factor influencing capacity, freight rates, transit times, and fuel consumption in 2026.
A recent report from Danish consultancy Sea-Intelligence projected that global demand for container shipping could decline by 12% in the third quarter of 2026, assuming a transition period of operational congestion following the Red Sea’s reopening. This forecast is based on a general 3% growth in global demand for that year.
Contrasting opinions have emerged regarding the motivations behind Maersk’s decision. Hua Joo Tan, co-founder of Asian container shipping consultancy Linerlytica, argued that the primary focus for Maersk is not necessarily to provide faster service. He noted that the transit times for the initial test voyages from Salalah to Newark were comparable to those using the longer Cape route, suggesting that customers may not benefit from reduced transit times.
As the global shipping landscape evolves, Maersk’s strategic decisions will continue to shape the industry. The recent announcement comes at a time when freight rates are already under pressure, with the Drewry World Container Index reporting a 4% decrease to $2,445 per FEU, primarily due to declining rates on the Transpacific and Asia-Europe trade routes.
