Record Growth in Global Aluminium Production Fuels Bauxite Trade
Global aluminium production has surged dramatically, nearly tripling since 2000, with significant implications for the dry bulk market. According to a recent analysis by Ursa Shipbrokers, global primary aluminium output reached a record 73.8 million tonnes in 2025, marking a 1.1% increase from the previous year. This figure represents a staggering 199% rise compared to the turn of the millennium, highlighting aluminium’s critical role in various sectors, including transportation, construction, power infrastructure, and consumer goods.
China has been the primary driver of this growth, increasing its aluminium production sixteenfold since 2000. At the beginning of the century, Chinese smelters contributed only 11% of global output. By 2025, this share had escalated to approximately 60%, equating to around 44.2 million tonnes. In contrast, aluminium production outside of China has seen minimal growth, remaining relatively flat since the mid-2000s. This trend has resulted in a global aluminium supply chain that is heavily reliant on Chinese demand.
Bauxite Demand Soars Amidst Aluminium Production Boom
The surge in aluminium production has led to a corresponding increase in demand for alumina, which is derived from bauxite. As a result, the global seaborne bauxite trade has reached unprecedented levels. Ursa estimates that global bauxite loadings hit approximately 246.6 million tonnes in 2025, a record high and an increase of nearly 42 million tonnes, or 21%, from the previous year. This growth trajectory has positioned bauxite as one of the standout stories in the dry bulk cargo sector in recent years.
Looking back to 2016, when global bauxite loadings were around 78.5 million tonnes, the volumes have grown at an estimated compound annual growth rate of nearly 14%. This increase reflects both the rising output of aluminium and China’s increasing dependence on imported bauxite. The supply of bauxite remains highly concentrated, with Guinea accounting for roughly 73% of global loadings in 2025, solidifying its status as the primary long-haul supplier to China. Australia follows, contributing about 18%, meaning these two countries together supply over 90% of the world’s seaborne bauxite.
On the demand side, China is the dominant player, importing an estimated 88% of all bauxite cargoes loaded onto dry bulk carriers last year. This influx is essential for feeding China’s extensive alumina refining system. With Chinese aluminium production nearing, and in some reports slightly exceeding, Beijing’s annual cap of 45 million tonnes, the aluminium-bauxite trade is poised to remain a crucial driver of tonne-mile demand in the dry bulk market, even as other sectors face slower growth.
