Aluminium Production Soars, Bauxite Trade Hits Record
Global aluminium production has surged dramatically, nearly tripling since 2000, with significant implications for the dry bulk market. According to a recent analysis by Ursa Shipbrokers, primary aluminium output reached a historic high of 73.8 million tonnes in 2025, marking a 1.1% increase from the previous year. This growth is largely attributed to China’s dominance in the sector, which now accounts for about 60% of global production.
China’s Dominance in Aluminium Production
The rise in aluminium production is primarily driven by China, which has increased its output sixteenfold since the turn of the millennium. In 2000, Chinese smelters contributed only 11% to global production, but by 2025, this figure had skyrocketed to approximately 60%, equating to around 44.2 million tonnes. In contrast, production outside of China has seen minimal growth, remaining relatively flat since the mid-2000s. This shift has led to a global aluminium supply chain that is heavily reliant on Chinese demand.
As aluminium production has surged, so too has the demand for alumina, which is derived from bauxite. The increased output has resulted in a record demand for bauxite, with Ursa estimating that global seaborne bauxite loadings reached 246.6 million tonnes in 2025. This represents a remarkable increase of nearly 42 million tonnes, or 21%, from the previous year. The growth trajectory of bauxite trade has been impressive, with volumes rising at an estimated compound annual rate of close to 14% since 2016.
Concentration of Bauxite Supply and Demand
The supply of bauxite remains highly concentrated, with Guinea supplying approximately 73% of global bauxite loadings in 2025, solidifying its position as the primary long-haul supplier to China. Australia follows, contributing around 18%, meaning these two countries together account for over 90% of seaborne bauxite volumes. On the demand side, China is the dominant player, importing an estimated 88% of all bauxite cargoes loaded onto dry bulk carriers last year to support its extensive alumina refining operations.
Record Growth in Global Aluminium Production Fuels Bauxite Trade
With China’s aluminium output nearing its annual production cap of 45 million tonnes, the aluminium-bauxite trade is expected to remain a crucial driver of tonne-mile demand. This trend persists even as broader dry bulk markets face challenges with slower growth in other areas. The ongoing expansion of aluminium production and the corresponding demand for bauxite highlight the significant role these materials play in global trade and industry.
