Seaborne Agricultural Trade Hits Record High in 2025
Seaborne agricultural trade reached an unprecedented level in 2025, with total volumes soaring to 716.5 million tonnes, according to a recent analysis by Ursa Shipbrokers. This figure represents a 1% increase from the previous year’s total of 711.5 million tonnes. While the growth of 5 million tonnes may seem modest, it marks a significant achievement, extending a decade that has seen only two annual declines in agricultural trade—specifically in 2018 and 2022.
The analysis encompasses a wide range of cargoes, including barley, corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean meal, sugar, and canola, across all major loading and discharge regions. Despite a sluggish start to the year, where agricultural loadings fell by approximately 6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, a robust recovery occurred in the latter half. Volumes surged by 7% year-on-year and 8% compared to the first six months of the year. This rebound contributed to a more favorable freight environment, particularly benefiting the geared and panamax segments.
Strong Start to 2026 with Increased Export Volumes
The momentum from 2025 has carried into 2026, with January loadings reaching 57.1 million tonnes—an 8% increase year-on-year and the strongest January performance in nearly a decade. Key contributors to this growth include East Coast South America and the US Gulf, where export shipments rose by 22% and 26% year-on-year, respectively.
Further analysis from BIMCO indicates that the pace of agricultural trade is accelerating. In the first six weeks of 2026, bulk grain shipments increased by 15% year-on-year, driven by a remarkable 30% surge in soybean exports and a 17% rise in wheat shipments. Filipe Gouveia, BIMCO’s shipping analysis manager, attributed this growth to record harvests in the Southern Hemisphere and the recent US-China trade agreement, which has enhanced trade flows.
Key US grain exports could fall 15% in 2023, brighter outlook ahead
Brazilian soybean production is projected to reach a record 180 million tonnes this season, accounting for 42% of global output. Additionally, Argentina’s wheat crop has also hit new highs, while Australian wheat production is on the rise. These factors have collectively boosted tonne-mile demand, which has increased by 17% year-on-year in 2026. Longer-haul voyages from Brazil and Argentina have particularly supported vessel demand, especially for panamax tonnage.
The Baltic Exchange Panamax Index has seen a substantial rise, averaging a 69% increase year-on-year during the early weeks of 2026, with grain shipments constituting about one-third of the segment’s tonne-mile demand. Supramax volumes have also experienced a 20% year-on-year increase, although grains play a smaller role in that segment’s overall demand profile.
Looking ahead, the first half of 2026 appears promising, bolstered by strong crop yields and increasing Brazilian exports. BIMCO forecasts a 5-6% growth in global grain shipments for the full year, contingent on the outcomes of Northern Hemisphere harvests and maize production trends in Brazil. For now, record crops and consistent demand are keeping agribulks at the forefront of dry bulk market dynamics.
