Shipping Backlog Intensifies as Iran Restricts Strait of Hormuz Access
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain largely suspended, despite a recent ceasefire agreement aimed at reopening this vital waterway. The ongoing restrictions have resulted in a significant backlog of approximately 3,200 vessels, including around 800 oil tankers and cargo ships, stranded near the western approach to the strait. Industry analysts report that maritime traffic is effectively frozen, raising concerns about compliance with the terms of the truce.
Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler, emphasized the impact of the disruption on energy supplies, stating, “We’re not seeing any oil products passing through there. For all intents and purposes, the strait remains closed. This is the leverage that Iran has.” Limited movement has been observed, with only three vessels transiting the strait recently, including two Iranian-flagged ships and a dry bulk carrier. However, most vessels are navigating outside standard commercial routes, often near Iran’s Larak Island, and some are disabling their tracking systems during passage.
The International Maritime Organization estimates that nearly 20,000 mariners are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf due to the ongoing standoff. Shipping operators are increasingly diverting cargo through alternative ports in Oman and along the eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates. This diversion extends transit times by up to two weeks and increases shipping costs by approximately 25 percent.
Iran’s Control and Ceasefire Compliance
Reports indicate that Iran is exerting direct control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz. An Israeli intelligence official stated, “The Strait is effectively under full IRGC control. They decide who gets to go through, but more importantly, who doesn’t.” The ceasefire announced by former President Donald Trump was contingent on Iran reopening the strait for unrestricted maritime traffic. Trump emphasized that the agreement required “Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” yet shipping activity has not returned to normal levels.
Analysts attribute the lack of traffic to both security concerns and financial constraints. Approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil supply typically passes through the strait, but shipping companies are hesitant to resume operations amid ongoing uncertainty. Smith noted, “We don’t know whether the Strait of Hormuz is mined. Even if it isn’t, the risk of being hit by a missile or a drone is a big enough deterrent. No one’s willing to take the chance.” Additionally, insurance requirements are limiting activity, with war-risk coverage available at significantly higher premiums and stricter conditions.
Sultan Al Jaber, head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, highlighted the situation on LinkedIn, stating, “This moment requires clarity. So let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open.” He noted that access is being restricted and controlled, with passage determined by “permission, conditions, and political leverage.” Reports also suggest that Iran is seeking to impose fees on vessels transiting the strait, including a proposed charge of $1 per barrel of oil transported, with payments requested in cryptocurrency.
Diplomatic Efforts Amid Ongoing Tensions
Iranian state media has linked the continued restrictions to ongoing Israeli military activity involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Tehran claims falls outside the scope of the ceasefire agreement. Vice President JD Vance and Trump have indicated that Israeli operations in Lebanon may be scaled back to support broader de-escalation efforts.
As uncertainty continues over the status of this critical maritime energy route, diplomatic discussions between U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled to take place Saturday in Pakistan. The outcome of these discussions may play a crucial role in determining the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the overall stability of the region.
