A reality check on SA’s naval shipbuilding future – News
South Australia Faces Submarine Construction Crisis
Opposition leader Peter Dutton has pledged an additional $21 billion for Defence spending by 2030, emphasizing the importance of the AUKUS submarine program for Australia’s security. However, South Australia’s naval shipbuilding industry is facing significant setbacks, with no current contracts for submarine construction and a reduction in future frigate projects. The situation raises concerns about the state’s role in national defence and the viability of future submarine projects.
Submarine Construction Contracts Disappearing
In September 2021, just before the announcement of the AUKUS program, South Australia was poised to play a crucial role in the nation’s defence industry. The state had secured contracts for twelve Attack-class submarines and nine future frigates, with the Osborne shipyard designated as the primary site for building major combat vessels. Fast forward three and a half years, and the landscape has drastically changed. Current government decisions have left South Australia without any contracts for submarine construction, and the number of future frigates has decreased from nine to six. Moreover, the eleven new General Purpose Frigates are set to be constructed overseas and in Western Australia, further diminishing South Australia’s naval capabilities.
The outlook for South Australia appears bleak, with the possibility of constructing three to five British-designed nuclear submarines (SS-AUKUS) only emerging in the mid-2030s. However, the likelihood of this project proceeding at Osborne diminishes daily. The first major blow to South Australia’s submarine construction came when it was announced that Australia would acquire three to five Virginia Class nuclear attack submarines from the United States, beginning around 2035. This acquisition hinges on the US Navy’s capacity to meet its own needs, which currently falls short of the required production rate.
AUKUS Program Faces Uncertain Future
The second phase of the AUKUS program involves the design and construction of SSN-AUKUS submarines in South Australia. However, this initiative is fraught with challenges, as the UK’s submarine industry has a history of delays and cost overruns. An independent assessment recently deemed the UK’s new naval reactor program “unachievable,” casting further doubt on the feasibility of timely delivery of designs and components necessary for Australia’s strategic needs.
In February, Admiral Johnathan Mead, head of the submarine program, acknowledged the “very high risk” associated with AUKUS during a Senate hearing. Despite this alarming admission, political leaders, including Prime Minister Albanese and Defence Minister Richard Marles, have shown little urgency in addressing these concerns. Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has pointed out that the government does have a Plan B, but it is one that entails the absence of submarines for Australia.
The potential fallout from this situation could be severe for South Australia, with the risk of not building any submarines for the navy looming large. This would have dire consequences for the state’s industry and economy. While promises have been made regarding the construction of nuclear submarines at Osborne, the reality is that the political landscape may shift before accountability is demanded from those in power.
To avert a crisis, experts suggest that Australia should reconsider its approach to naval capabilities. A shift towards acquiring off-the-shelf air-independent submarines could provide a more reliable and timely solution, allowing for enhanced defence capabilities at a fraction of the cost of the AUKUS program. As the situation stands, South Australia’s defence industry is left in uncertainty, and the need for a pragmatic Plan B has never been more pressing.
