India’s fossil emissions set to rise by 4.6%: Report
India's Fossil Fuel Emissions Set to Rise by 4.6% in 2024 Amid Global Climate Challenges
India’s Emissions on the Rise
India’s fossil fuel emissions are expected to grow by 4.6% in 2024, according to a new study by the Global Carbon Project. This is happening even as countries around the world push for cleaner energy. The study reveals that global fossil fuel emissions could reach a record 37.4 billion tonnes next year—a 0.8% increase from 2023. This projection comes despite the fast rise of renewable energy sources and last year’s promise at COP28 in Dubai to reduce the use of fossil fuels.
A Global Emissions Update
The “Global Carbon Budget 2024” report predicts that total global CO2 emissions will go from 40.6 billion tonnes in 2023 to 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024. If these predictions are accurate, 2024 could become the hottest year ever recorded.
Professor Pierre Friedlingstein from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study, said, “The impacts of climate change are becoming more dramatic, yet the burning of fossil fuels has not yet peaked.”
India’s Role in Climate Change
India is the world’s most populated country and has a fast-growing economy. In 2023, India’s greenhouse gas emissions increased by 6.1%, making up 8% of the world’s total emissions. However, India’s historical contribution to global emissions is small, just 3% of the total. India’s per-person emissions are also low—2.9 tons per capita, compared to the global average of 6.6 tons.
India has set a target to reach “net zero” emissions by 2070, aiming to balance the amount of emissions with the amount removed. To help reach this goal, India plans to have 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030.
Emissions in Other Major Regions
China, the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is expected to see a slight increase of 0.2% in emissions in 2024. China currently makes up 32% of global emissions. There’s a small chance China’s emissions could even decrease next year.
The United States and the European Union, which contribute 13% and 7% of global emissions respectively, are both set to see reductions. U.S. emissions are expected to drop by 0.6% and EU emissions by 3.8%. Other regions in the world, accounting for 38% of global emissions, could see a 1.1% rise in 2024.
Fossil Fuels and Their Impact
Globally, emissions from coal, oil, and gas are expected to rise in 2024. Coal might increase by 0.2%, oil by 0.9%, and gas by 2.4%. These three fuels contribute the most to global CO2 emissions—coal at 41%, oil at 32%, and gas at 21%. However, there is still uncertainty, and coal emissions might even decline next year.
Rising Emissions in Shipping and Aviation
The report highlights that emissions from international aviation and shipping are also expected to rise by 7.8% in 2024. These sectors are responsible for 3% of global emissions, and although they are growing, they remain 3.5% lower than pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
Land Use and Wildfires: A Mixed Picture
While emissions from changes in land use, like deforestation, have dropped by 20% over the last decade, they are expected to rise again in 2024. Efforts to replant forests and new trees are helping, now offsetting about half of the emissions from permanent deforestation.
The study also reports that technology-based methods for removing CO2 only cover a tiny portion of emissions. Emissions from wildfires in 2024 have already been higher than usual due to extreme fires in Canada in 2023 and severe droughts in Brazil. Despite these challenges, natural carbon absorbers like forests and oceans still manage to take in about half of the world’s carbon emissions.
What Lies Ahead?
This research underscores the urgent need to cut down on fossil fuel use to tackle climate change. Even with new technology and renewable energy, global carbon emissions remain stubbornly high. The challenge remains to reduce the impact of fossil fuels while boosting efforts in renewable energy and other climate solutions.
