Record Aluminium Production Fuels Bauxite Trade Surge
Global aluminium production has reached unprecedented levels, significantly impacting the dry bulk market. According to analysis by Ursa Shipbrokers, global primary aluminium output hit a record 73.8 million tonnes in 2025, marking a 1.1% increase from the previous year. This surge represents a staggering 199% rise since the year 2000, underscoring aluminium’s critical role in various sectors, including transportation, construction, power infrastructure, and consumer goods.
China has been the primary driver behind this growth, with its aluminium production skyrocketing sixteenfold since 2000. At the beginning of the century, Chinese smelters contributed only 11% to global production. By 2025, this share had surged to approximately 60%, equating to around 44.2 million tonnes. In contrast, aluminium production outside China has seen minimal growth, remaining largely stagnant since the mid-2000s. This shift has increasingly centralized the global aluminium supply chain around Chinese demand.
Bauxite Demand Soars Amidst Aluminium Production Boom
The rise in aluminium production has led to a corresponding increase in demand for alumina, which is derived from bauxite. As a result, the global seaborne bauxite trade has also reached new heights. Ursa estimates that global bauxite loadings reached approximately 246.6 million tonnes in 2025, a record increase of nearly 42 million tonnes, or 21%, from the previous year. This growth trajectory has established bauxite as one of the standout stories in the dry bulk cargo sector in recent years.
In 2016, global bauxite loadings were around 78.5 million tonnes, but volumes have since grown at an estimated compound annual growth rate of nearly 14%. This increase reflects both the rising output of aluminium and China’s increasing dependence on imported bauxite. The supply of bauxite remains highly concentrated, with Guinea accounting for about 73% of global loadings in 2025, solidifying its status as the primary long-haul supplier to China. Australia follows with approximately 18%, meaning these two countries collectively provide over 90% of the world’s seaborne bauxite.
China’s dominance in bauxite imports is evident, as it received an estimated 88% of all bauxite cargoes loaded onto dry bulk carriers last year. This influx is essential for feeding China’s extensive alumina refining system. With Chinese aluminium output nearing, and in some reports slightly exceeding, Beijing’s annual production cap of 45 million tonnes, the aluminium-bauxite trade is poised to remain a crucial driver of tonne-mile demand. This trend persists even as broader dry bulk markets face slower growth in other areas.
