Shipping Industry Faces Turbulent Times Amid Tariff Changes
The shipping industry is experiencing significant upheaval as recent tariff policies lead to fluctuating freight rates and shifting trade patterns. Containerized imports to the U.S. saw a modest increase in the first half of 2025, but imports from key trading partners like China have declined. Meanwhile, the Port of Los Angeles reported a notable rise in container imports in June, highlighting the ongoing volatility in the market.
Container Imports Surge at Los Angeles Port
In June 2025, the Port of Los Angeles reported a remarkable increase in laden container imports, reaching 470,449 twenty-foot equivalent units (teu). This figure represents a 32% rise from May’s 355,950 teu and a 9.73% increase compared to the same month last year. For the first half of 2025, total laden container imports at the port reached 4.956 million teu, marking a 4.74% year-on-year growth.
Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director, noted that fluctuations in policy often lead to dramatic changes in cargo volumes. He explained that when strict policies are implemented, cargo volumes tend to drop sharply. Conversely, when deadlines shift, there is a rush to import goods before new regulations take effect. Seroka observed a slight advance in peak season imports but emphasized that the intermodal system requires time to adjust, especially after recent layoffs and subsequent rehiring of dockworkers.
Concerns regarding potential secondary sanctions on China due to its continued purchase of Russian oil have also been raised. Currently, tariffs on Chinese imports stand at 55%, and Seroka highlighted a decline in volumes from China since the initial tariffs were introduced in 2018. At that time, China accounted for 60% of U.S. trade; today, that figure has dropped to 45%. This trend suggests that as tariffs increase, the impact on import volumes will become more pronounced.
Freight Rates Plummet Amid Trade Uncertainty
The ongoing volatility in tariff policies has led to significant fluctuations in transpacific freight rates. In mid-June, rates for shipping containers to the U.S. West Coast peaked at $5,994 per twenty-foot equivalent unit (feu) but have since plummeted by approximately 60% to $2,337, returning to levels seen before the tariff pause. Similarly, rates for shipments from Asia to the U.S. East Coast via Panama peaked at $7,183 per feu on June 20, only to fall 37% to $4,501 in the following weeks.
Maersk to Showcase the Future of Green Shipping with Methanol-Enabled Vessel in Los Angeles
Despite a record global volume of 16.34 million teu in May 2025, the outlook for the second half of the year appears bleak. With only three trade deals finalized between the U.S. and its international partners, a decline in trade volumes is anticipated. Freight rates indicate that this downturn may already be underway.
In Europe, the situation is also shifting. The Asia-Mediterranean box freight rate peaked at $4,847 per feu on June 20 but has since decreased by about 25% to $3,700. Meanwhile, the Asia to North Europe rate experienced a similar decline, dropping from $3,096 to $3,400 mid-July. The freight rate for EU to U.S. container cargo remains stable at around $1,930 per feu, while rates for U.S. exports to the EU have decreased by 25% from their mid-June peak.
As the shipping industry navigates these turbulent waters, liner companies are preparing for a wave of new vessels set to be delivered in the latter half of 2025. They are also bracing for increased insurance costs and the first EU emissions trading system allowances due in September. With the prospect of rising emissions costs looming, the future of the shipping market remains uncertain.
