Shipping Markets Start 2026 on a High Note
The shipping markets have kicked off 2026 with an unexpected surge in activity, defying traditional January trends. According to shipbroker Xclusiv, this year has seen significant increases in dry bulk and tanker markets, contrasting sharply with previous years. Historically, January has been a month of cautious optimism, often leading to declines as cargo programs dwindle. However, the latest data indicates a robust start for 2026, with major dry bulk timecharter baskets showing notable gains.
In January 2026, the Capesize index rose approximately 15% from the beginning to the end of the month, while Panamax vessels experienced an impressive 36% increase. The Supramax index remained relatively stable, while Handysize vessels saw a decrease of about 10%. This performance marks a significant improvement compared to January 2025, where all major indices closed lower than they began. The average rates for January 2026 are substantially higher than those of the previous year, with Capesize rates up by 111%, Panamax by 65%, Supramax by 45%, and Handysize by 32%.
Tankers Reflect Similar Trends with Notable Increases
The tanker market is also witnessing a positive shift, with January 2026 showing substantial gains across various vessel categories. The Baltic TCE history indicates that many tanker segments, including Aframax and MR baskets, finished January higher than they started. The VLCC segment saw a remarkable increase of approximately 104%, while Aframax vessels jumped by about 86%. Suezmax and MR Atlantic also reported gains of 24% and 55%, respectively.
This upward trend in tanker earnings is attributed to several factors, including sanctions, longer routing, and fleet availability. These elements have contributed to a supportive environment for tanker earnings as the market progresses into 2026. The overall performance of the tanker market aligns with the broader narrative of increasing demand and tightening supply chains.
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Increased Activity in Sales and Purchases
Xclusiv’s report highlights that January 2026 has been the most active month for sales in the past five years. A total of 71 bulk carriers were sold, compared to 52 in January 2025, while tanker sales surged to 87 from just 20 a year ago. The dry bulk segment saw significant activity, with Supramax and Ultra vessels leading the way with 27 sales, accounting for 38% of all bulk transactions. In the tanker market, VLCCs dominated with 37 sales, followed by MR2 vessels with 16.
The surge in sales activity, even amid high prices, can be attributed to several factors. Shipowners are motivated to secure trading tonnage rather than face long delivery times. Additionally, strong spot and time charter earnings, along with positive market sentiment, have created an opportune moment for owners to realize returns on their investments. The Baltic market updates throughout January indicate a positive freight tone in both dry bulk and tanker segments, further supporting this trend.
As the shipping industry moves forward in 2026, the early signs of a robust market may set the tone for the rest of the year.
