Shipping Routes Under Siege: A New Era of Maritime Conflict
Recent maritime incidents have transformed shipping corridors into perilous battlegrounds, as highlighted by the sinking of the Greek-operated bulk carrier, Eternity C, in July 2025 due to Houthi attacks in the southern Red Sea. The United Nations condemned these assaults, emphasizing the urgent need for security in vital shipping lanes. As tensions rise, the global shipping industry faces significant challenges, including increased fuel costs and emissions, as vessels are forced to reroute around Africa, impacting trade dynamics worldwide.
Shifting Trade Patterns Amidst Maritime Threats
The concept of “weaponised interdependence,” coined by scholars Henry Farrell and Martha Finnemore, describes how control over critical nodes in shipping and trade can be used as a tool for coercion. As shipping routes become increasingly dangerous, companies are adapting by seeking alternative supply chains. For instance, fast-fashion retailers like Asos and Boohoo are shifting their sourcing strategies, opting for suppliers in Turkey and Morocco instead of relying on Asian manufacturers that depend on risky routes through the Red Sea or lengthy detours around the Cape of Good Hope.
In response to the threats in the Red Sea, Israeli and Gulf operators have developed an overland transport route from Dubai through Saudi Arabia and Jordan to Haifa. This truck-borne bypass offers a temporary solution, although its cargo capacity remains limited. The ongoing conflict and the potential for further disruptions have prompted shippers to rethink their logistics strategies, prioritizing safety and reliability over cost. This shift reflects a broader trend of fragmentation in global trade, where companies are increasingly wary of traditional supply routes.
At the same time, a shadow fleet has emerged, particularly in Russia and Venezuela, circumventing sanctions and regulatory frameworks. These aging tankers operate off-grid, using tactics such as turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) and conducting ship-to-ship transfers to evade detection. This underground network highlights the lengths to which operators will go to maintain trade flows, even in the face of significant risks and challenges.
Adapting to a Fragmented Maritime Landscape
The reality of fragmented shipping routes raises critical questions about resilience in global supply chains. As traditional corridors become increasingly vulnerable to conflict and disruption, the ability to maintain cargo movement is paramount. Companies that can diversify their logistics options—by establishing multiple routes, modes of transport, and suppliers—will have a competitive edge in this new maritime landscape.
In an era defined by weaponised interdependence and coercive connectivity, the most effective strategy may be to embrace “weaponised choice.” This approach allows businesses to pivot away from compromised routes while still ensuring timely deliveries. As the global shipping industry navigates these turbulent waters, adaptability and foresight will be essential for survival and success.
