Sinking Chinese Sub Shows the New, Speedy Nature of Naval Intelligence

Earlier this year, Tom Shugart, a keen American military observer, noticed something strange at a Chinese shipyard. Tom, who used to serve in the US Navy as a submariner, now spends his time studying satellite photos and gathering clues from the internet to understand how China is quickly modernizing its military. In 2021, he even wrote a paper about this for the Lowy Institute, sharing his insights.

In this instance, Tom spotted several crane barges around a submarine docked at the Wuchang Shipyard in China. This shipyard is known for building diesel-electric submarines and surface ships for China’s navy. The incident happened back in May, but it’s being discussed now because of a recent report in The Wall Street Journal. The report, which quotes anonymous US government sources, claims that the submarine Tom spotted had actually sunk while it was at the pier. What Tom observed may have been an attempt to salvage the submarine.

What makes this story even more interesting is that the submarine in question is a new design called the Type 041, which, according to US sources, is nuclear-powered. However, Wuchang Shipyard isn’t known for making nuclear-powered submarines. Also, many are asking: how could a submarine sink in such shallow waters? The Wall Street Journal mentions that American officials haven’t noticed any signs of Chinese authorities testing the water or environment nearby for radiation, which would be expected if there was a leak from a nuclear submarine.

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This incident has sparked many questions about China’s submarine program. Some experts think this might show that China’s military is struggling, possibly because of corruption. However, submarine accidents aren’t that rare, even in the world’s best military forces.

There’s also curiosity about why the US decided to share this information with The Wall Street Journal. What does the US gain from this? It certainly causes embarrassment for China, but it could also be part of a strategy the US has been using more often. In recent times, the US and the UK have been sharing intelligence more quickly, like they did before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. By declassifying and sharing information faster, they can get ahead of their rivals and shape public opinion.

The digital age has made it harder to keep secrets. Information like satellite images, once only available to intelligence agencies, is now easier to access. So, governments may prefer to release information quickly to make a bigger political impact.

Of course, not everyone believes this story. Some Chinese citizens online are saying the entire report is false. It’s possible they are right, but that would be a risky move for the US. For this kind of intelligence leak to work, the media must trust that the information is accurate. The US had success with this approach before the Ukraine invasion because the information they shared turned out to be correct. If the submarine story turns out to be false, it could hurt the credibility of the US.