Strait of Hormuz Shipping Traffic Plummets Amid Ongoing Conflict
Since the outbreak of conflict following US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has drastically declined. The vital trade route has seen a mere trickle of cargo ships and tankers, predominantly Iranian, navigating its waters. According to analytics firm Kpler, the number of vessels crossing the 167-kilometer (104-mile) strait has dropped by 95% compared to peacetime levels.
Significant Decline in Shipping Activity
From March 1 to March 19, only 114 crossings were recorded in the Strait of Hormuz, a staggering decrease from normal operations. Of these crossings, 69 were oil tankers, with over half carrying cargo. Most of the traffic has been directed eastward, primarily consisting of bulk carriers, tankers, and container ships. Richard Meade, editor of Lloyd’s List, noted a slight increase in gas carriers in recent days, indicating some movement in an otherwise stagnant shipping environment.
The dramatic reduction in shipping activity highlights the impact of the ongoing conflict on global trade routes. The strait is a critical passage for oil and liquefied natural gas, with a fifth of the world’s supply typically transiting through it during peacetime. The current situation raises concerns about energy security and the potential for further disruptions in global oil markets.
Current Shipping Dynamics and Sanctions
Most vessels currently navigating the strait are either owned or flagged in Iran. Recent data indicates that Greek ships account for 18% of crossings, while Chinese vessels make up 10%. Despite Iran’s continued control over the strait and its oil exports, other shipping activities remain largely halted. Bridget Diakun, an analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, emphasized that the majority of traffic is now dominated by sanctioned vessels, with around one-third of all ships transiting the strait under US, EU, or UK sanctions.
According to a report by JPMorgan, the bulk of oil passing through the strait is destined for Asia, particularly China, which is currently receiving over one million barrels per day—significantly lower than the pre-war level of nearly five million barrels. The report also noted that 98% of observable oil traffic is Iranian, averaging 1.3 million barrels per day in early March. As tensions continue, some vessels are reportedly navigating under Iranian approval, following routes closer to the Iranian coastline.
Alternative Shipping Routes on the Rise
In response to the ongoing conflict and the challenges posed by the Strait of Hormuz, shipping companies are exploring alternative routes to transport their cargo. Major shipping firm CMA CGM has begun moving freight across Gulf countries via rail and road to bypass the strait entirely. Marine intelligence group Windward reported a significant increase in transit volumes through the Bab el-Mandeb strait off the east coast of Africa, which surged by 280%, and a 70% increase through the Suez Canal. These developments indicate a global rebalancing of maritime traffic as companies adapt to the evolving geopolitical landscape.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains fluid, with ongoing negotiations between various governments, including China, India, and Pakistan, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to coordinate vessel transits. As the conflict continues, the implications for global shipping and energy markets are likely to remain significant.
