Surge in Global Newbuilding Orders Signals Fleet Expansion
The global merchant ship fleet is experiencing a significant resurgence in newbuilding orders, marking a notable shift from a five-year period of stagnation. As of the end of 2025, the newbuilding orderbook has expanded to represent 18% of the existing fleet, a substantial increase from just 9% at the end of 2020. This growth reflects a renewed confidence among shipowners and investors in various segments, including bulk carriers, tankers, container ships, and gas carriers. The increase in orders comes after a low point five years ago when the deadweight total for merchant ships fell to its lowest level in 17 years.
The ordering trends have not been uniform across all ship types. While container and gas carrier segments have shown vigorous activity, fluctuations in tanker and bulk carrier orders have been observed. In 2025, despite a significant increase in orders in the previous year, a moderation in activity was noted, yet the overall volume still surpassed the number of new vessels delivered from shipyards. This trend indicates a growing orderbook as a percentage of the existing fleet, suggesting a potential for future fleet enlargement.
Investor Sentiment Drives Diverse Ordering Patterns
Investor sentiment has played a crucial role in shaping the newbuilding landscape over the past five years. The container ship segment has seen particularly high ordering volumes, with significant increases in deadweight tonnes (dwt) recorded in 2024 and 2025. Gas carrier orders, particularly for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), also surged, although a sharp decline was observed in the most recent year. Tanker orders have rebounded strongly, with notable increases in the very large crude carrier (VLCC) category.
In contrast, the bulk carrier segment has experienced more moderate activity, with annual newbuilding contracts fluctuating. After a peak in 2021, the total has averaged around 49m dwt over the past four years. The varying patterns in ordering reflect changing perceptions among investors regarding market influences and future events, including geopolitical factors and regulatory pressures.
As of early 2026, the orderbooks for gas carriers and container ships are notably high, representing approximately 38% and 32% of existing deadweight tonnage, respectively. In comparison, tankers and bulk carriers are at lower percentages of 17% and 12%. These figures raise concerns about potential over-capacity unless significant scrapping or demand growth occurs.
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Future Implications for Fleet Growth and Market Dynamics
The timing of newbuilding deliveries will significantly impact the future growth of the global fleet. According to Clarksons Research, approximately 29% of the total newbuildings are expected to be delivered in 2026, with further increases anticipated in subsequent years. However, uncertainties remain regarding future ordering patterns, as shipyard capacity is becoming increasingly constrained due to recent high levels of contracting activity.
The implications of these newbuilding volumes extend to the freight market and the overall demand-supply balance. While some commodity movements are expected to grow, others may decline, particularly in the context of the global transition away from fossil fuels. This shift poses challenges for the tanker and bulk carrier fleets, which may see reduced capacity requirements.
