The State of U.S. Shipbuilding Hearing Testimony

The House Armed Services Committee recently convened to discuss the Navy’s shipbuilding strategy during a hearing on March 11, 2025. Key witnesses, including Brett Seidle, acting Assistant Secretary of the Navy, and representatives from the Congressional Research Service, Government Accountability Office, and Congressional Budget Office, presented insights into the Navy’s ambitious plans. The 2025 shipbuilding plan focuses on expanding the fleet while enhancing firepower and operational capabilities.

Key Insights from the CBO Report

The Department of Defense (DoD) submitted the Navy’s shipbuilding plan for fiscal year 2025 to Congress on March 18, 2024. In accordance with legal requirements, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analyzed this plan to assess its financial implications. The Navy’s 2025 strategy includes one official plan and an alternative that could be activated if budget constraints arise. Unlike previous years, which featured multiple alternatives, this year’s plan emphasizes a larger fleet with improved firepower distributed across more ships.

The CBO estimates that the average annual cost to implement the 2025 plan will be approximately $40.1 billion (in 2024 dollars) over a 30-year period, with $35.8 billion allocated specifically for new ship construction. Notably, the 2025 plan diverges from the alternatives proposed in 2024 by prioritizing fewer next-generation attack submarines and large surface combatants while increasing the procurement of current-generation vessels. Despite these adjustments, the overall costs of the 2025 plan are projected to be significantly higher than those of the previous alternatives due to increased unit costs and a greater number of ships being purchased.

Regulation development for autonomous and remote-controlled shipping

Navy’s Fleet Expansion Goals

The Navy aims to achieve a fleet of 381 battle force ships and 134 unmanned vessels, totaling 515 naval platforms, as outlined in its classified Battle Force Ship Assessment and Requirement (BFSAR) report submitted to Congress on June 20, 2023. The 2025 shipbuilding plan aligns with the Department of Defense’s latest national security strategy, focusing on enhancing offensive capabilities through a greater number of ships equipped with missiles and unmanned systems. This strategy aims to provide task force commanders with increased operational flexibility while complicating adversaries’ efforts to neutralize the fleet’s offensive capabilities.

If fully realized, the Navy’s plan would result in the largest fleet since 2001. However, challenges remain, particularly regarding maintenance delays that have persisted for over a decade. These delays could hinder the Navy’s ability to deploy the number of ships necessary to meet its goal of 381 battle force ships.

As of December 1, 2024, the Navy’s fleet consisted of 296 battleships. To reach its target, the Navy plans to acquire 364 ships over the next 30 years, including 293 combat ships and 71 support vessels. Although the fleet is expected to grow, it will temporarily shrink in the near term, with 13 more ships set to be retired than commissioned over the next three years, potentially reducing the fleet to a low of 283 ships by 2027. Despite this short-term decline, the Navy anticipates a recovery, projecting a fleet of 390 ships by 2054, surpassing its initial goal.

While the 2025 plan lacks specific details regarding the size and composition of future unmanned vessels, the Navy has indicated intentions to acquire enough large unmanned surface vessels to establish a force of 40 such crafts.