Why 2025 is such an important year for shipping
2025: A Pivotal Year for Shipping Decarbonization
International shipping plays a crucial role in the global economy, moving over 80 percent of all goods. However, this essential service comes at an environmental cost. The maritime industry accounts for approximately three percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, making it the sixth-largest emitter if it were a country. As the world pushes for sustainability, 2025 emerges as a critical year for shipping decarbonization. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to finalize measures aimed at reducing emissions and steering the industry towards net-zero emissions by 2050.
Decarbonization Strategies and Expectations for 2025
In 2023, the IMO adopted a new strategy focused on reducing the climate impact of shipping. This strategy aims for net-zero emissions “by or around 2050” and sets ambitious targets for 2030 and 2040. One key goal is for zero- or near-zero-emission fuels to comprise at least five percent of the energy used in international shipping by 2030, with aspirations for ten percent.
The 2025 meeting of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) will be pivotal. It will finalize a “basket of mid-term GHG reduction measures.” These measures are expected to include a global fuel standard (GFS) to regulate the GHG intensity of marine fuels and an economic element, such as a greenhouse gas levy. This levy would financially penalize emissions while incentivizing the adoption of cleaner alternatives. Proposals for the levy range from $18.75 to $150 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e). Funds raised could subsidize zero-emission fuels and assist countries most affected by the transition.
The IMO, a UN agency with 176 member states, will oversee the development of these measures. The Secretary-General, Arsenio Dominguez, will lead discussions at the MEPC meeting scheduled for April 7-11, 2025. The regulations approved during this meeting will apply to all member states and are expected to take effect in 2027.
As the shipping industry prepares for MEPC 83, clarity on these regulations is crucial. While the industry’s response to the IMO’s greenhouse gas strategy has been generally positive, many companies remain in a “wait-and-see” mode. The details of the GFS and potential levy will significantly influence how the industry approaches emissions reductions. The biggest challenge remains the cost disparity between traditional fossil fuels and low- or zero-emission alternatives.
To ensure a fair transition, the IMO emphasizes the need for a “just and equitable” approach that does not disproportionately impact any region or segment of the industry. The international community must devise mechanisms to support countries most affected by rising trade costs. While economic support is essential, opportunities for investment in zero-emission shipping value chains, such as fuel production and port infrastructure, also exist. The decisions made in 2025 will shape the future of maritime trade and its environmental impact.
