Iran’s Navy is Powerless to Intervene in Syria or Lebanon

Iran’s navy is often in the spotlight, especially during military events. Recently, Major General Mohammad Baqeri, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, highlighted the strength of Iran’s naval forces during Navy Day celebrations. He stated that the regular Navy (Nedaja) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (Nesda) are strong players in international waters. According to him, these forces are safeguarding vital shipping routes and ensuring the safety of merchant ships and tankers. But is this truly the case?

Iran’s Navy: What’s the Real Picture?

Despite these bold claims, Iran’s ability to operate far from its shores is limited. Since 2008, Iran has maintained a small naval presence in the Red Sea, marking its only permanent outpost beyond its borders. The current mission, known as the 100th Flotilla, highlights the challenges Iran faces in projecting power on the global stage.

In Syria, Iran has provided troops and advisors to support the regime, along with mercenaries recruited from Shi’a refugee communities. They have also backed Hezbollah forces. However, there is no proof that Iran has successfully moved military supplies or reinforcements by sea to support these efforts. Ports like Latakia and Tartus, which are controlled by forces loyal to former President Assad, remain off-limits to Iranian naval operations. This casts doubt on Iran’s ability to support its regional goals through naval power.

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Recent Setbacks for Iran’s Navy

Recent developments show the hurdles Iran’s navy faces. For example, on December 4, the Nedaja tried to deploy the long-range logistics ship IRINS Makran (K441). However, the vessel turned back just four days later, raising questions about its readiness. Similarly, the RO-RO logistics vessel Shahid Roudaki (L110-1) has been missing from its regular location for days. This absence could have been an opportunity to transport key equipment or personnel.

Another ship, the Shahid Bagheri (C110-4), was recently moved after sitting idle for a long time. Observed near the Bandar Abbas Naval Basin, this ship might soon undergo trials. If these trials follow the pattern of its sister ship, Shahid Mahdavi (C110-3), Iran may attempt air operations from its deck. While Iran owns a fleet of Pilatus PC-6 aircraft, using them on these ships seems challenging. It is more likely that drones would be used, but recovering them safely poses significant risks.