Risk Rises for Russian Military Cargoes at Sea
Rising Threats to Russian Military Cargo at Sea
Recent developments indicate a significant increase in risks to Russian military cargoes at sea. The sinking of the Russian military auxiliary vessel Ursa Major off the coast of Oran on December 23 marks a troubling trend. This incident occurred shortly after the ship passed through the Straits of Gibraltar, suggesting that the dangers facing Russian maritime operations are escalating. As the conflict in Ukraine continues, the Russian military’s reliance on foreign armament shipments has intensified, raising concerns about the security of these vital supply routes.
Dependence on Foreign Ammunition Supplies
The Russian war effort in Ukraine has become heavily reliant on ammunition shipments from abroad. This dependency stems from the challenges faced by the Russian military industry, which is struggling to meet the demands of the front lines due to Western sanctions and a shortage of manpower. As a result, Russia has turned to foreign suppliers for essential military supplies. Two key suppliers, North Korea and Iran, utilize seaborne freight to deliver their shipments to Russia.
North Korea has emerged as a significant source of ammunition, reportedly exporting around 300,000 shells per month. These shipments, which include 122mm and 152mm artillery shells, are transported from the port of Raijin to Dunai near Vladivostok. From there, the ammunition is integrated into the Russian rail network. Recent reports suggest that North Korea’s contributions may account for as much as 50% of Russia’s ammunition needs. Additionally, shipments from North Korea have expanded to include missiles and armored vehicles, further bolstering Russia’s military capabilities.
Iran, while supplying smaller quantities of ammunition, has focused primarily on exporting drones. These drones have proven to be impactful on the battlefield. Unlike North Korea, Iran faces logistical challenges in delivering its supplies. The country relies on shipping routes through the Caspian Sea, utilizing ports like Bandar-e Anzali and Amirabad to transport military equipment to Russia. Recent social media images have surfaced, allegedly showing Iranian air defense systems and tactical ballistic missiles being prepared for shipment, highlighting the critical role these supplies play in supporting Russia’s military operations.
Ukraine’s Strategic Response to Maritime Threats
From Ukraine’s perspective, targeting Russian military cargoes at sea presents a cost-effective strategy. Attacking concentrated shipments of munitions before they reach protected storage sites can significantly disrupt Russian supply lines. Ukraine has demonstrated its willingness to strike Russian targets beyond its borders, showcasing its capabilities in maritime operations.
While there is no concrete evidence linking Ukraine to the sinking of the Ursa Major, the incident underscores the potential for Ukrainian forces to target Russian maritime assets. Ukraine has previously engaged in successful operations against Russian naval vessels in the Caspian Sea, indicating a growing capacity to disrupt Russian logistics. The Ukrainian military has also provided support to various groups engaged in combat against Russian interests in other regions, such as Syria and Africa.
As the conflict evolves, Ukraine is likely to prioritize attacks on key maritime routes used for transporting military supplies. Although these operations present technical challenges, Ukraine has a track record of developing innovative solutions to complex military problems. The increasing willingness of other nations to provide covert support to Ukraine further enhances its capabilities in this regard. As evidence emerges of Russian covert operations targeting undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, the stakes for both sides continue to rise, making the security of maritime supply routes a critical aspect of the ongoing conflict.
