Strait of Hormuz Traffic Stalls Amid Rising Tensions
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased due to escalating tensions in the region. Iran’s recent attacks on ships and the United States’ initiative to assist vessels navigating this crucial waterway have contributed to a near standstill in maritime activity. As of early Monday afternoon in London, only a few vessels, primarily linked to Iran, were reported to be in transit. U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed a plan to guide stranded ships out of the Persian Gulf, which he described as a “humanitarian gesture.” However, shipping executives are seeking further details as the security situation remains precarious.
The U.S. Central Command announced on social media platform X that two American-flagged merchant vessels successfully passed through the strait. The military is actively working to restore commercial traffic in the area. Despite having five U.S.-flagged commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf at the end of February, none have activated their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals for weeks, raising concerns about their safety.
The U.S. initiative comes after a prolonged period of stagnation regarding transits through Hormuz, coinciding with broader conflicts in the Middle East. Millions of barrels of oil and other products remain trapped in the Persian Gulf as Iran seeks to tighten its control over this strategic chokepoint. Reports from Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency indicate that the country has expanded its control zone across the strait, complicating navigation for commercial vessels.
Ship Movements and Navigation Challenges
Recent ship movements highlight the ongoing uncertainty in the region. On Monday, a Panama-flagged bulk carrier and two Chinese-owned vessels abandoned their outbound voyages toward the strait, opting instead to head west. This decision followed a warning from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) about unidentified radio commands instructing ships to vacate the area, underscoring the unpredictable risks present in the region.
Commercial traffic remained sparse on Monday morning, with vessel-tracking data revealing only two transits: an Iran-linked liquefied petroleum gas carrier exiting the Gulf and an India-linked feeder containership entering. The limited activity follows a similarly slow Sunday, during which only one bulk carrier and a few smaller regional vessels made outbound journeys.
Iranian media reports suggest that Tehran has broadened its defined control zone across the strait, extending from south of Mount Mobarak to Fujairah and from west of Qeshm Island to Umm al-Quwain. This expansion further complicates navigation in one of the world’s most critical maritime routes. The subdued activity in the Gulf of Oman raises questions about whether Iran-linked vessels are adhering to regional trading patterns or are being delayed by a U.S. naval blockade positioned further east.
The presence of U.S. naval forces may also be affecting traffic patterns. Some Iran-linked vessels may be turning off their AIS signals to evade detection, complicating real-time tracking of maritime movements. Historically, it has been common for these vessels to go dark when approaching Hormuz, only to restore their signals well after passing through high-risk waters. As tensions continue to rise, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains fluid and uncertain.
