West Africa now drives one in seven cape cargoes

Recent data from Jefferies reveals that West Africa now accounts for 14% of capesize liftings, a significant increase from just 6% three years ago. This shift in the global cape trading landscape is primarily fueled by a surge in bauxite exports from Guinea. Analysts predict that the upcoming launch of the Simandou iron ore project will further boost long-haul cape loadings from the region, intensifying market competition.

Surge in Bauxite Exports and China’s Demand

According to AXSMarine, port discharges of bauxite along China’s coastline reached 106.7 million tonnes in the first half of 2025, marking a 22.5 million tonne increase compared to the same period in 2024. Notably, around two-thirds of this bauxite is transported via capesize and Newcastlemax vessels. Over the past decade, China’s bauxite imports for aluminum production have skyrocketed by nearly 200%, climbing from approximately 57.2 million tonnes in 2015 to an estimated 170.8 million tonnes in 2024. Guinea plays a crucial role in this trade, supplying 69.7% of China’s bauxite needs.

West Africa now drives one in seven cape cargoes

In 2024, China’s aluminum production reached a record 43.4 million tonnes, with the first half of 2025 showing a 2.5% year-on-year increase to 21.8 million tonnes. This growth underscores the rising demand for bauxite as a key ingredient in aluminum manufacturing. Earlier this year, reports indicated that capesize vessels began transporting more bauxite than coal, highlighting a significant shift in global trade patterns.

Guinea’s New Maritime Regulations

Despite the booming bauxite trade, challenges loom on the horizon. The Guinean government has announced plans to exert greater control over its maritime supply chain. Minister of Mines and Geology, Bouna Sylla, has mandated that 50% of all bauxite shipments must be conducted on vessels flying the Guinean flag. To facilitate this, the government has established its own shipping company, Guinéenne des Transports Maritimes (GUITRAM), dedicated to transporting bauxite.

Additionally, Sylla introduced the Guinea Bauxite Index (GBX), a national price index aimed at enhancing transparency and maximizing economic benefits from the country’s bauxite resources. However, industry experts, including broker SSY, warn that increased government intervention may diminish the attractiveness of Guinean bauxite, potentially signaling an end to the rapid growth experienced in recent years. As the global market adapts to these changes, stakeholders will be closely monitoring the implications for both Guinea and the broader bauxite trade.